Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem
dc.contributor.author
Penalba, Olga Clorinda
dc.contributor.author
Rivera, Juan Antonio
dc.date.available
2018-09-14T21:05:52Z
dc.date.issued
2016-02
dc.identifier.citation
Penalba, Olga Clorinda; Rivera, Juan Antonio; Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 36; 2; 2-2016; 974-986
dc.identifier.issn
0899-8418
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59809
dc.description.abstract
This article addresses the regional impacts of climate change on precipitation and meteorological drought over Southern South America (SSA) through a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble based on 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced under two different greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). An assessment of the biases in the representation of the precipitation annual cycle was performed over the 1979-2008 period over five regions within SSA, based on a comparison between the GCMs precipitation outputs with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset. The multi-model ensemble well reproduces the shape of the annual cycle of precipitation over most of SSA, although the monthly totals were overestimated (underestimated) over the North-West and South (North-East and Central-East) regions. Changes in precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics were identified by the difference for early (2011-2040) and late (2071-2100) 21st century values with respect to the 1979-2008 baseline, using the standardized precipitation index as a short- and long-term drought indicator. Future climate conditions are expected to modify the regional characteristics of meteorological droughts over SSA, but the range of uncertainty in the expected changes is high. A significant increase in the number of drought events in all the regions for most of the 21st century sub-periods is projected for the multi-model ensemble. The mean duration of drought events will be shorter, with no significant changes in the severity of droughts and the occurrence of multi-decadal changes in the number of critical dry months is likely, although the significance in the changes depends on the region, future time horizon and greenhouse gas concentration pathways. These results overlap with a projected increase in precipitation over most of the regions, which has a strong seasonality and, therefore, will have some implications upon the future meteorological drought developments and the agricultural and hydrological practices in SSA.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Climate Change
dc.subject
Cmip5 Models
dc.subject
Meteorological Drought
dc.subject
Southern South America
dc.subject
Standardized Precipitation Index
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2018-09-14T13:24:16Z
dc.journal.volume
36
dc.journal.number
2
dc.journal.pagination
974-986
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
dc.journal.ciudad
Londres
dc.description.fil
Fil: Penalba, Olga Clorinda. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Rivera, Juan Antonio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
dc.journal.title
International Journal of Climatology
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4398
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4398
Archivos asociados