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dc.contributor.author
Otero, Marcelo Javier
dc.contributor.author
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
dc.date.available
2018-09-11T17:11:11Z
dc.date.issued
2010-01
dc.identifier.citation
Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito; Elsevier Science Inc; Mathematical Biosciences; 223; 1; 1-2010; 32-46
dc.identifier.issn
0025-5564
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59096
dc.description.abstract
We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Elsevier Science Inc
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Aedes Aegypti
dc.subject
Dengue
dc.subject
Eco-Epidemiology
dc.subject
Stochastic Models
dc.subject.classification
Otras Ciencias Biológicas
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Ciencias Biológicas
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CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2018-09-10T16:34:22Z
dc.journal.volume
223
dc.journal.number
1
dc.journal.pagination
32-46
dc.journal.pais
Países Bajos
dc.journal.ciudad
Amsterdam
dc.description.fil
Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Mathematical Biosciences
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2009.10.005
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