Climate impacts on crop yields in Central Argentina. Adaptation strategies

Abstract

The Pampas is among the major agricultural regions in the world; a large proportion of Argentina crop production is originated in this region. The exportation of grain and oil crop represents more than 40% of the total national exportations. Impact of future climate on wheat, maize and soybean yield and crop adaptation in the Pampas region (60 million hectares) are assessed using climatic inputs generated by CCSM4 climate model (National Center for Atmospheric Research, US). Projections show an increase in the seasonal means maximum and minimum temperature for both the near (2015–2039) and the far (2075–2099) future, as well as a seasonal annual precipitation increase in the near future and a significant increase in the far future with extreme emissions scenarios. In the near future the crop model projects a reduction in wheat yield, an increase in maize yield and a significant increment in soybean yield compared to the regional baseline for moderate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) emissions. In the far future the projection shows a decrease in wheat yield in the RCP4.5 scenario and an increase in the RCP8.5 scenario, maize and soybean shown a yield increase in both scenarios. Adaptation strategies for the near and far future are proposed for wheat and maize that result in up to 45% yield increases. Adaptation strategies are not proposed for soybean because yield increases were predicted in all scenarios and horizons.