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dc.contributor.author Spennemann, Pablo Cristian
dc.contributor.author Rivera, Juan Antonio
dc.contributor.author Osman, Marisol
dc.contributor.author Saulo, Andrea Celeste
dc.contributor.author Penalba, Olga Clorinda
dc.date.available 2018-08-24T16:39:03Z
dc.date.issued 2017-08
dc.identifier.citation Spennemann, Pablo Cristian; Rivera, Juan Antonio; Osman, Marisol; Saulo, Andrea Celeste; Penalba, Olga Clorinda; Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events; American Meteorological Society; Journal Of Hydrometeorology; 18; 8; 8-2017; 2297-2311
dc.identifier.issn 1525-755X
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11336/56978
dc.description.abstract The importance of forecasting extreme wet and dry conditions from weeks to months in advance relies on the need to prevent considerable socioeconomic losses, mainly in regions of large populations and where agriculture is a key value for the economies, such as southern South America (SSA). To improve the understanding of the performance and uncertainties of seasonal soil moisture and precipitation forecasts over SSA, this study aims to 1) perform a general assessment of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), soil moisture and precipitation forecasts against observations and soil moisture simulations based on GLDAS, version 2.0; 2) evaluate the ability of CFSv2 to represent wet and dry events through the forecasted standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized soil moisture anomalies (SSMA); and 3) analyze the capability of a statistical methodology (merging observations and forecasts) in representing a severe drought event. Results show that both SPI and SSMA forecast skill are regionally and seasonally dependent. In general, a fast degradation of the forecasts skill is observed as the lead time increases, resulting in almost no added value with regard to climatology at lead times longer than 3 months. Additionally, a better performance of the SSMA forecasts is observed compared to SPI calculated using three months of precipitation (SPI3), with a higher skill for dry events against wet events. The CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the spatial patterns of the 2008/09 severe drought event, although it shows crucial limitations regarding the identification of drought onset, duration, severity, and demise, considering both meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (SSMA) drought conditions.
dc.format application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher American Meteorological Society
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject ATMOSPHERE-LAND INTERACTION
dc.subject FORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL
dc.subject PRECIPITATION
dc.subject SEASONAL FORECASTING
dc.subject SOIL MOISTURE
dc.subject SOUTH AMERICA
dc.subject.classification Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
dc.subject.classification Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated 2018-08-21T21:00:54Z
dc.journal.volume 18
dc.journal.number 8
dc.journal.pagination 2297-2311
dc.journal.pais Estados Unidos
dc.journal.ciudad Boston
dc.description.fil Fil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
dc.description.fil Fil: Rivera, Juan Antonio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
dc.description.fil Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
dc.description.fil Fil: Saulo, Andrea Celeste. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
dc.description.fil Fil: Penalba, Olga Clorinda. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
dc.journal.title Journal Of Hydrometeorology
dc.relation.alternativeid info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0015.1
dc.relation.alternativeid info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0015.1
dc.conicet.fuente Elsevier


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info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)