Global sensitivity analysis in the development of first principle-based eutrophication models

Abstract

In this work, we formulate a dynamic first principle-based eutrophication model for a reservoir and perform global sensitivity analysis to determine most influential parameters. Both first-order and total sensitivity indices profiles have been calculated throughout a time horizon of one year on main differential state variables, which include cyanobacteria, diatoms and chlorophyta concentration, as well as main nutrient concentration. Numerical results have shown a marked seasonality in sensitivity indices and have allowed ranking of parameters, which in turn have been estimated with observed data from the study case, Paso de las Piedras reservoir (Bahía Blanca, Argentina).