El Niño Southern Oscillation drives conflict between wild carnivores and livestock farmers in a semiarid area in Chile

Abstract

The warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events results in greatly elevated rainfall in north-central Chile, with dramatic effects on small mammals and vertebrate carnivore abundances. In ensuing cool phases of ENSO, plant cover decreases, followed by small mammal densities, in turn affecting the resource availability for their predators. Wild carnivores such as foxes are one of the main predators of small mammals; when the latter decline, foxes could exhibit functional responses, increasing their consumption of domestic livestock. To our knowledge, the influence of native prey abundance on livestock predation has not been assessed. We hypothesize that periods of scarce native prey increases conflicts between carnivores and farmers outside protected areas, especially during drought years. From 1990 to 2005 we used live trapping to determine monthly density of small mammals in a national park (Bosque Fray Jorge National Park, BFJNP) in north-central Chile; rainfall was also monitored. We calculated an index of predation as the number of sheep predated by foxes annually on one farm (encompassing ca. 45,000 ha) located in the vicinity of BFJNP. Path analysis was carried out to assess factors influencing sheep predation by wild foxes. Factors included precipitation and small mammal density. Small mammal density correlated positively with two years moving average of rainfall. Sheep predation by foxes increased after of two years of low rainfall. Our findings suggest that wild carnivores employ functional responses in response to varying prey availability, shifting from wild to domestic prey during periods of drought, which could have important conservation and management implications