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Artículo

Comparative analysis of the ability of a set of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models to represent precipitation in South America

Gulizia, CarlaIcon ; Camilloni, Ines AngelaIcon
Fecha de publicación: 03/2015
Editorial: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Revista: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 0899-8418
e-ISSN: 1097-0088
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de recurso: Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas

Resumen

The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the ability of two sets of global climate models derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to represent the summer, winter, and annual precipitation mean patterns in South America south of the equator and in three particular sub-regions, between years 1960 and 1999. Different metrics (relative bias, spatial correlation, RMSE, and relative errors) were calculated and compared between both projects in order to determine if there has been improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5 models in the representation of regional rainfall. Results from this analysis indicate that for the analyzed seasons, precipitation simulated by both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models' ensembles exhibited some differences. In DJF the relative bias over Amazonia, central South America, eastern Argentina and Uruguay is reduced in CMIP5 compared to CMIP3. In JJA, the same occurs in some areas of Amazonia. Annual precipitation is also better represented by the CMIP5 than CMIP3 GCMs as they underestimate precipitation to a lesser extent, although in NE Brazil the overestimation values are much larger in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 analysis. In line with previous studies, the multi-model ensembles show the best representation of the observed patterns in most seasons and regions. Only in some cases, single GCMs (MIROC3.2(hires) -CMIP3- and MIROC4h -CMIP5-) presented better results than the ensemble. The high horizontal resolution of these models suggests that this could be a relevant issue for a more adequate estimation of rainfall at least in the analyzed regions.
Palabras clave: Global Climate Models , Evaluation , Precipitation , South America
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)
Identificadores
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/42037
URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4005
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4005
Colecciones
Articulos(CIMA)
Articulos de CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIONES DEL MAR Y LA ATMOSFERA
Citación
Gulizia, Carla; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Comparative analysis of the ability of a set of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models to represent precipitation in South America; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 35; 4; 3-2015; 583-595
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