Vulnerability and Risk of Hydrometeorological Hazards in Central-Northeastern Argentina

Abstract

Extreme hydrometeorological events (EHEs) pose significant risks to central-northeastern Argentina, requiring a nuanced understanding of subnational-level vulnerability and risk. This study integrates physical and socio-economic data to evalu-ate individual and multi-hazard risks across long-term and short-term time scales. Vulnerability is analyzed through exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Risk is assessed as the interaction between EHE hazards and vulnerability. The analysis reveals a medium average vulnerability across the region, with marked spatial differences. Central Argen-tina—encompassing southern Santa Fe, eastern Córdoba, and northern Buenos Aires—shows medium vulnerability due to high exposure, counterbalanced by low sensitivity and high adaptive capacity. In contrast, northwest and central-western regions—including Formosa, eastern Salta, and eastern Santiago del Estero—exhibit high vulnerability driven by high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity despite low exposure. Heatwave risk is the highest and most widespread, particularly in northern Argentina. Risks from long-term dry and wet extreme precipitation display distinct regional patterns. Heavy precipitation risks are locally high in the northeast. Flash drought risk remains comparatively low across the region. The findings highlight that long-term multi-hazard risk is the most extensive and severe, while short-term multi-hazard risk is less widespread but dominated by heatwaves. Despite limitations, including uncertainties in input data and a constrained set of indicators, these results underscore the need for tailored adaptation strategies. Efforts should focus on reducing exposure in the south through improved infrastructure and agricultural practices and enhancing adaptive capacity in the north. Future research should explore compound risks and identify practical adaptation measures.