How Does Trade Policy Respond to the Polycrisis: Analysis of the Argentinean Case

Abstract

Between 2020 and 2024, the world experienced an unprecedented convergence of crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and significant geopolitical shifts among major economies. This article examines how Argentina's trade policy responded to this ‘polycrisis’ during Alberto Fernández's administration (2019–2023). It explores the scope of policy change prompted by these crises, from adjustments in existing mechanisms to broader reframing strategies. Drawing on interpretive content analysis of official documents, elite interviews and trade policy databases, the study traces how policymakers interpreted the crises and which trade instruments were mobilised. Our findings reveal that while individual crises did not significantly alter Argentina's international economic relations, their synergies prompted a reassessment of trade policy priorities and strategic positioning. Argentina adopted adaptive policies and partially reframed its trade strategy, particularly in discourse and sectoral focus, engaging with the evolving global dynamics. The research underscores the value of the polycrisis concept in understanding trade policy responses, offering insights into the trade policymaking process in middle-income countries. Overall, this analysis contributes to a nuanced understanding of trade policy evolution in response to external shocks, emphasising the interplay between domestic and international factors in shaping policy outcomes.