Projected impact of climate change on the future distribution of Larrea species in southern South America

Abstract

Climate change is causing vegetation shifts worldwide, affecting species distributions and altering natural ecosystems. Understanding the impact of future climate projections on plant habitats is crucial for sustainable biodiversity, effective long-term conservation and management strategies. In this study, we assessed the future distribution of four species within the genus Larrea across the semi-arid to arid regions of Argentina using species distribution modeling forced with current and future climate conditions. We focused on a mid-future (2041–2070) time horizon using a high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) scenario to evaluate changes in several bioclimatic indicators that contribute to the spatial distribution of Larrea. While projected temperature is expected to reach 2 °C above the reference 1981–2010 period and precipitation is projected to increase up to 10% in much over the study area, the future suitable habitats for the Larrea species will largely remain similar to their current distribution, with some minor changes in their spatial range. This result is relevant for the evaluation of plants adaptability to future climate conditions, a factor that can ensure mitigation plans and restoration efforts for the drylands.