Natural disasters and trade: evidence from global port data

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the impact of natural disasters on global trade flows (exports and imports). We use daily microdata at the port level (N = 2,655,035 observations) of trade flows and combine them with georeferenced records of natural disasters. Our identification strategy relies on an event study design that enables us to estimate the dynamic impact of disasters over various time horizons. The results show a substantial decline in imports and exports, ranging from 39% to 47%. This reduction disappears within the first week after the disaster, with notable heterogeneity between countries and ports. Thus, disaster adaptation policies are essential.