Modelling the potential distribution of the invasive poplar lace bug Monosteira unicostata (Heteroptera: Tingidae) and its capacity to adapt to novel environments

Abstract

1. Monosteira unicostata is an important pest of ornamental, stone, and seed fruittrees. It is native to Eurasia and was introduced in North America in 2012 and inSouth America in 2016. In South America, it has progressively increased its distribution,causing problems in the exportation of pears and apples that have resulted insignificant economic losses.2. The climates of the areas recently invaded and of the regions where it is establishedin Eurasia were compared and ecological niche models were built to evaluate if ithas gone through a niche shift while invading the Americas, to identify where thereare suitable conditions for its establishment in South America in the present and inthe future.3. Results indicate that M. unicostata has conserved its climatic niche while invadingSouth America but has not been conservative while invading North America. There-fore, an increase in its distribution in North America could occur if it continues tobroaden the range of environmental conditions it occupies.4. Evidence indicates that M. unicostata is not in equilibrium in South America, suggestingthat it is likely to continue spreading its distribution to other countries.Therefore, it is advisable to implement monitoring programs to prevent its furtherexpansion or ensure early detection.5. Maxent models indicate the environmental conditions allow the spread ofM. unicostata to all Argentinean provinces and Chilean regions as well as to neighbouringcountries. Future climatic scenarios forecast that the suitable areas willremain in similar locations but will expand in extent.