Unmasking Neuroendocrine Prostate Cancer with a Machine Learning-Driven Seven-Gene Stemness Signature That Predicts Progression

Abstract

Prostate cancer (PCa) poses a significant global health challenge, particularly due to its progression into aggressive forms like neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC). This study developed and validated a stemness-associated gene signature using advanced machine learning techniques, including Random Forest and Lasso regression, applied to large-scale transcriptomic datasets. The resulting seven-gene signature (KMT5C, DPP4, TYMS, CDC25B, IRF5, MEN1, and DNMT3B) was validated across independent cohorts and patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models. This signature demonstrated strong prognostic value for progression-free, disease-free, relapse-free, metastasis-free, and overall survival. Importantly, the signature not only identified specific NEPC subtypes, such as large-cell neuroendocrine carcinoma, which is associated with very poor outcomes, but also predicted a poor prognosis for PCa cases that exhibit this molecular signature, even when they were not histopathologically classified as NEPC. This dual prognostic and classifier capability makes the seven-gene signature a robust tool for personalized medicine, providing a valuable resource for predicting disease progression and guiding treatment strategies in PCa management.