Climate change threatens pupping sites of the critically endangered Mustelus schmitti: Insights from ecological niche models for ocean conservation

Abstract

Climate change is already affecting the oceans, and its impacts on marine threatened biodiversity are expected to worsen, with its effects on marine biodiversity, particularly threatened species, expected to intensify. Understanding these effects is crucial for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this study, we applied Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of breeding areas, critical for the survival of the Critically Endangered narrownose smooth-hound shark (Mustelus schmitti). Using the Wallace package in R, we correlated a detailed geographic database of the pupping sites and five key oceanographic variables under both current and future climate scenarios. Future projections indicate a significant reduction in suitable habitats. Our findings suggest that, under current conditions, the only areas maintaining highly suitable conditions for breeding are the already identified regions of El Rincón and Río de la Plata. Overall, we predicted a severe effect of climate change on the species’ phenology, with stable, high-suitability breeding areas restricted to very small locations meeting minimum and optimal pupping conditions. These findings suggest that climate change may drastically modify the distribution of essential habitats for M. schmitti management, emphasizing the need of integrating these such predictive approaches into conservation and management plans of oceans.