Fertility Decline to Low and Lowest-Low Levels in Latin America

Abstract

The literature on fertility trends in Latin America from 2000 to 2010 highlights reductions in higher-order births and the postponement of first births as key drivers of fertility decline. However, the factors sustaining the transition to low and very low fertility levels during 2011–2020 remain underexplored. This paper examines recent fertility trends in Latin America, identifying the main drivers and mechanisms behind the decline and their implications for future fertility patterns. Using period-, age-, and order-specific rates, we assess their contributions to changes in total period fertility rates across six Latin American countries, which together represent nearly three-quarters of the region’s population, and the Latinx populations in the United States. Our analysis reveals that most decline (49–85%) is concentrated among the youngest age groups, suggesting that first-birth postponement is the primary underlying mechanism. We contend that, while a slight fertility recovery may occur in the coming decade, very low or even lowest-low fertility levels are possible to persist.