Mapping the Potential Presence of the Spotted Wing Drosophila Under Current and Future Scenario: An Update of the Distribution Modeling and Ecological Perspectives

Abstract

The article addresses the current and future potential distribution of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae), commonly known as spotted wing Drosophila (SWD). This invasive pest affects various fruit crops worldwide. Native to Southeast Asia, the species has rapidly expanded due to its high adaptability to climates and ability to infest ripe fruits. SWD occurrence data were collected from multiple databases, pseudo-absences were selected from the background area, and climatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim. The Random Forest algorithm was employed to model the current distribution and project future scenarios, categorizing environmental suitability into high, moderate, and low levels. The analysis of bioclimatic variables indicated that factors such as isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and precipitation of the driest month are the most significant for pest distribution. The results revealed high climatic suitability for the species in North America, Europe, and Asia, with projections indicating expansion under climate change scenarios in the Northern Hemisphere, including new areas in Europe and North America. Regions with higher suitability are expected to require management and monitoring strategies, particularly in vulnerable agricultural areas. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of climatic data in predicting pest distribution and formulating effective control and mitigation policies.