Inverse priority effects: A role for historical contingency during species losses

Abstract

Communities worldwide are losing multiple species at an unprecedented rate, but how communities reassemble after these losses is often an open question. It is well established that the order and timing of species arrival during community assembly shapes forthcoming community composition and function. Yet, whether the order and timing of species losses can lead to divergent community trajectories remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose a novel framework that sets testable hypotheses on the effects of the order and timing of species losses—inverse priority effects—and suggests its integration into the study of community assembly. We propose that the order and timing of species losses within a community can generate alternative reassembly trajectories, and suggest mechanisms that may underlie these inverse priority effects. To formalize these concepts quantitatively, we used a three-species Lotka-Volterra competition model, enabling to investigate conditions in which the order of species losses can lead to divergent reassembly trajectories. The inverse priority effects framework proposed here promotes the systematic study of the dynamics of species losses from ecological communities, ultimately aimed to better understand community reassembly and guide management decisions in light of rapid global change.