Seismic forecasting by gapped wavelet transform for the Río de la Plata craton and adjacent continental platform

Abstract

Historical and instrumental seismicity from 1845 to the present was compiled for the Pampean regions of Argentina and Uruguay and the adjacent continental platform. These data were analyzed using the Gapped Wavelet Transform (GWT) with the aim of investigating recurrence patterns in the time series. The GWT analysis reveals the existence of periods of seismic activity and periods of seismic silence within the considered area. A 22-year period was determined as the main pattern of seismic activity, during which earthquakes are registered only in 11 years. Based on these results, a probabilistic earthquake forecasting model was created using the Bayesian Machine Learning method, which suggests that the current seismically active period spans from 2011 to 2023 ± 1, with a cessation until 2034 ± 1, while the next seismically active period would begin in 2034 ± 2 ending in 2046 ± 2. These periods or recurrence patterns are interpreted as intervals during which stress accumulates throughout intracrustal faults in the studied area, being then released through various events within the established temporal interval. The accumulation and release mechanisms are still a subject of debate. However, the earthquakes distribution suggests a sublatitudinal arrangement that tends to confirm some correspondence with the controlling faulting of the Quilmes Trough and others transtensional regional lineaments.