Genetic insights, assessment of ecological niche and projected distribution changes of the mountain mayfly species Andesiops peruvianus under climate change in the andes

Abstract

Mountainous regions are biodiversity hotspots with a high rate of endemism. However, these areas are witnessing accelerated warming, that threaten biodiversity and potentially causes habitat shrinkage for many species. Our study focuses on one such species, Andesiops peruvianus, a native mayfly of the mountains regions of South America. Our objectives were to analyze the genetic diversity of the 16 S gene in several populations, to assess their climate niche and potential distribution under future climate change scenarios. For genetic analysis samples were collected and sequenced from different sites across the South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia) and combine with the GenBank database. We identified 17 unique haplotypes based on 16 S gene, grouping them into two mains lineages: northern (Colombia and Ecuador) and southern (Bolivia and Argentina). Niche analysis showed a significant divergence between the northern and the southern lineages, suggesting distinct ecological niches. As future climatic changes were examined, both groups were observed to potentially lose about half of their suitable habitats. Habitat loss is the greatest at lower altitudes, but with some gain at higher altitudes. Isothermality and Annual Mean Temperature played a crucial role in defining habitats suitable for A. peruvianus. These features, coupled with their low thermal tolerance, might render the species particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.