Identification of priority areas for the restoration of high Andean mountain forests under climate change: a case study using potential distribution models

Abstract

Paleontological studies in the central Andes have uncovered the vulnerability of Polylepis forests to climate shifts, attributed to limited seed dispersal capabilities and the rugged terrain. Given the ecological significance of these forests-forming species as biodiversity hotspots and carbon sinks, their restoration is imperative for the preservation of endemic species and ecosystem services. At the extreme south of the genus’ range, we find Polylepis australis, a forest-forming tree species endemic to Argentina and uniquely extending beyond the Andes into the Sierras Grandes of the Cordoba province. This study utilizes potential distribution models to help inform on restoration strategies considering projected future climate scenarios. Employing Maxent 3.4.3 with 453 presence locations, we estimated a present potential distribution spanning 13,923 km2. Our analysis of future climate projections reveals important poleward contractions alongside minor uphill shifts (20 m above sea level), ultimately resulting in a net habitat loss of 4596 km2 (34%). This underscores the critical role of climate simulations in identifying species specific priority sites for restoration efforts and also highlighting Polylepis forests susceptibility to both climate change and anthropogenic impacts.