Disease Spreading through Complex Small World Networks

Abstract

The end of the COVID-19 pandemic allows an analysis in retrospect of the spread and early containment scenarios of the disease. Today we can weigh the diversity of results imposed by highly heterogeneous urban landscapes (both geographical and social). In this research, we address scenarios of one or more communities (neighborhoods) formed by small structures with strong connectivity among themselves (families). Special attention was paid to the early containment of the epidemic. After simulating many scenarios, it was observed that early isolation of the infected individuals is more efficient than the isolation of their entire family. But we also noted that the containment of the disease loses effectiveness if the clinical tests for its detection are reported late (from 1 to 4 days). On the other hand, the existence of neighborhoods (with high population density) complicates the disease containment strategies, since (a) the disease spreads faster due to the highly dense environment, and (b) these act as “hubs of contagion”, even if the disease itself is of low contagiousness.