Population and Economic Growth: a Panel Causality Analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth using panel data from 111 countries over the period from 1960 to 2019. In the first stage of the analysis, we divided the sample into three groups of countries using a non-parametric method. Unlike the ad hoc decisions made in previous studies, which were based on factors such as size or economic performance, these categories were determined objectively. We conducted a Granger causality analysis on internally homogeneous groups, composed of countries with similar trajectories in population and economic growth, which are clearly distinct from one another. Our results reveal significant qualitative differences in the dynamics of population and economic growth between these groups.