Estimating species distribution changes due to human impacts: the 2020's status of the jaguar in South America

Abstract

Monitoring species distribution over time and understanding factors and mechanisms that determine it is crucial for effective conservation planning. We estimated the current jaguar Panthera onca distribution in South America based on a large set of records (2,557) from 2000–2020 and a set of absence points (both field collected and randomly selected from known jaguar absence areas) using a combination of kriging interpolation and logistic regression models. The current jaguar range in South America is estimated at 7.9 million km2 which is 14% less than the estimate for 2015 and 25% less than for 2000. The reduction of the jaguar’s South American range has been continuous and relatively rapid. Our logistic regression models show that the decrease in jaguar distribution across South America was mainly driven by increasing deforestation, road density, pasture and farmland area, and human population density. During the last 20 years, negative changes in the jaguar habitat suitability (ranging from minor to major) occurred over various parts of the jaguar’s range, including core areas in the Amazon basin, covering 9.3% of the area of the jaguar range. We also show that different ecological factors drive the distribution of jaguar populations in different eco-regions. Based on this work, we propose a stronger international collaboration in monitoring jaguar populations and conservation efforts and a new approach for estimating species distribution for IUCN Red List assessments.