A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain

Abstract

A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate the spread of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the Castile-and-Leon (CyL) region of Spain. The model was fitted using information available on premises demographics and on assumptions for animal movements, indirect contacts, and airborne exposure. Control measures dictated by Spanish and European Union regulations constituted a reference strategy to which six alternative control strategies were compared. For the reference strategy, the median (95% PI) numbers of infected, depopulated, and quarantined premises were 141 (2–1099), 164 (4–1302), and 334 (31–2059), respectively. Depopulation and vaccination of premises within a radius of <1 km and <3 km, respectively, around infected premises significantly (p-value < 0.001) decreased the number of infected premises, compared to the reference scenario. Results presented here will contribute to the revision, design, and implementation of contingency plans and programs for prevention and control of FMD epidemics in Spain.