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dc.contributor.author
González, Tomás Ignacio
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dc.contributor.author
Laguna, Maria Fabiana
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dc.contributor.author
Abramson, Guillermo
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dc.date.available
2024-07-29T10:50:28Z
dc.date.issued
2024-08
dc.identifier.citation
González, Tomás Ignacio; Laguna, Maria Fabiana; Abramson, Guillermo; A mean field analysis of the role of indirect transmission in emergent infection events; Elsevier Science; Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications; 648; 8-2024; 1-9
dc.identifier.issn
0378-4371
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/241049
dc.description.abstract
We developed a mathematical model to investigate the role of indirect transmission in the spread of infectious diseases, using the illustrative example of sarcoptic mange as a case study. This disease can be transmitted through direct contact between an infected host and a susceptible one, or indirectly when potential hosts encounter infectious mites and larvae deposited in the environment, commonly referred to as fomites. Our focus is on exploring the potential of these infectious reservoirs as triggers for emerging infection events and as stable reservoirs of the disease. To achieve this, our mean field compartmental model incorporates the epidemiological dynamics driven by indirect transmission via fomites. We identify different types of dynamics that the system can go into, controlled by different levels of direct and indirect transmission. Among these, we find a new regime where the disease can emerge and persist over time solely through fomites, without the necessity for direct transmission. This possibility of the system reveals an evolutionary pathway that could enable the parasite to enhance its fitness beyond host co-evolution. We also define a new threshold based on an effective reproductive number, that enables us to predict the conditions for disease persistence. Our model allows us to assess the potential effectiveness of various disease intervention measures by incorporating a feature observed in real systems. We hope this contributes to a better understanding of infectious disease outbreaks.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Elsevier Science
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Mange
dc.subject
Fomite
dc.subject
Indirect transmission
dc.subject
Mathematical epidemiology
dc.subject.classification
Otras Ciencias Físicas
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias Físicas
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
A mean field analysis of the role of indirect transmission in emergent infection events
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2024-07-29T10:29:46Z
dc.journal.volume
648
dc.journal.pagination
1-9
dc.journal.pais
Países Bajos
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dc.description.fil
Fil: González, Tomás Ignacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Laguna, Maria Fabiana. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Abramson, Guillermo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378437124004424
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2024.129933
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