Analytical and simulation-based estimation of public transport demand

Abstract

We consider the problem of public transport demand estimation. For the practical use of many models of transit assignment in any planning study, the knowledge of the transport demand systematized as an origin-destination matrix is required. Generally, this matrix is very expensive and difficult to obtain. In Bhouri et al. (2021) we proposed to estimate the OD-matrix through the numerical solution of a bilevel optimization problem. One disadvantage of this formulation is the difficulty of obtaining descent directions; therefore, we proposed a derivative-free method for the resolution of the optimization problem. Our goal in this work is to extend the study to larger networks, combining analytical modeling and simulation-optimization methodology. We use both approaches to perform the demand estimation over a section of a real network, and compare the obtained results for different scenarios and parameters.