Moving from ecological impacts to social vulnerability in data-scarce places

Abstract

Managers need to trace social impacts and vulnerability caused by environmental change all the way to itsdriving forces to target key system components for intervention. However, most available scientific evidencedeals with either the ecological impacts of direct drivers or the value of ecosystem benefits to people. Our matrixbasedtool combines these types of evidence to make environmental management problems traceable through astructured yet flexible procedure. The tool consists of a series of matrices that sequentially link direct drivers ofenvironmental change, landscapes, ecological conditions, benefits to people, and stakeholder types. Qualitativematrices result from the integration and synthesis of available evidence from literature reviews, and where datais scarce, these are used to elicit quantitative scores from expert opinion. Expert scoring of links and multiplicationof matrices allow for estimating the impacts of each driver of environmental change on each stakeholdertype and using this information as input to assess stakeholders’ vulnerability through impact-influence diagrams.Applying the tool to the Argentine Gran Chaco, a globally threatened ecoregion, yielded a transparent andreliable picture of this data-scarce place, with important management implications. Tracing stakeholder impactsback to direct drivers confirmed that further encroachment of cleared areas around indigenous lands will increasethe vulnerability of this social group. Also, assessing confidence levels for every social-ecological linksuggested that incentivizing peasant farmers to restore natural forage supply represents a management opportunityto reverse degradation. Our tool makes interdisciplinary frameworks of linked ecological and social systemsoperational so managers can use the best available knowledge of a place and account for uncertainty tomake environmental management decisions.