Climate factors rather than human activities controlled NDVI trends across wet meadow areas in the Andes Centrales of Argentina

Abstract

In the Andes of southern South America, wet meadows are much more productive than nearby arid areas. Human activities, along with climate variations may reduce the productivity of these ecosystems. However, we do not know what the relative effect of climate and human activities on their degradation status is. Here, we first quantified the degradation extent through the temporal trend of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a proxy of productivity, from 1999 to 2017. We did it in 736 wet meadow areas inserted in three nearby zones with contrasting land management. Second, we analyzed the relationship between NDVI and a large-scale mode of climate variability (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and regional climate variables (precipitation and temperature) through a structured climate model. Finally, we evaluated human activities’ effects through the temporal trends in the residuals of the climate model. Independently of land management, NDVI trends were mainly negative and affected 56% of the wet meadow areas. The climate model indicated that NDVI increased under La Niña, cool and wet years. Regarding land management, the degradation level was similar across the contrasted land management. Our results suggest that climate factors rather than human activities influenced the degradation process in these areas.