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dc.contributor.author
Aguirre Zapata, Estefanía
dc.contributor.author
Alvarez, Hernan
dc.contributor.author
Kulichevsky, Luis E.
dc.contributor.author
Di Sciascio, Fernando Agustín
dc.contributor.author
Amicarelli, Adriana Natacha
dc.date.available
2024-02-19T15:13:01Z
dc.date.issued
2023-11
dc.identifier.citation
Aguirre Zapata, Estefanía; Alvarez, Hernan; Kulichevsky, Luis E.; Di Sciascio, Fernando Agustín; Amicarelli, Adriana Natacha; Forecasting Lobesia botrana flight activity: A new semi-physical model; Elsevier; Crop Protection; 173; 11-2023; 1-13
dc.identifier.issn
0261-2194
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/227484
dc.description.abstract
Mathematical models can be used to predict the phenological development and voltinism of multivoltine pests with complete metamorphosis. Such models are valuable for creating decision support systems (DSS) that help farmers, engineers, and government agencies to set up optimal control strategies for pest containment and eradication. In particular, wine-growing regions of worldwide are frequently affected by the economically important pest Lobesia botrana. Several mathematical models have been proposed in the literature to describe the evolution, voltinism, demographic functions, and other characteristics of this moth. However, many of these models: (i) are based on experimental or field data specific to the regions where they were developed, making it difficult to extrapolate their results to other parts of the world, and (ii) are not predictive, but aim to describe the spatial distribution of the pest or purely biological developmental issues. To address this problem, we present a new model for predicting L. botrana flight peaks, fitted with data from Cuyo region, Argentina. Our model is based on first principles and can be easily adapted for other regions thanks to its interpretability. The model considers temperature, relative humidity, food availability, and biotic factors, such as mortality, fecundity, and pest development rates. In the validation phase, the proposed model was able to describe L. botrana voltinism for the Cuyo region with an absolute error of 216 male adults, corresponding to a precision of 89.6%.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Elsevier
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
BIOTECHNOLOGICAL MODELING
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LOBESIA BOTRANA
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MODELS USED FOR PEST PREDICTION AND MANAGEMENT
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VOLTINISM
dc.subject.classification
Sistemas de Automatización y Control
dc.subject.classification
Ingeniería Eléctrica, Ingeniería Electrónica e Ingeniería de la Información
dc.subject.classification
INGENIERÍAS Y TECNOLOGÍAS
dc.title
Forecasting Lobesia botrana flight activity: A new semi-physical model
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2024-02-19T10:31:39Z
dc.journal.volume
173
dc.journal.pagination
1-13
dc.journal.pais
Países Bajos
dc.journal.ciudad
Amsterdam
dc.description.fil
Fil: Aguirre Zapata, Estefanía. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Instituto de Automática. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Automática; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Alvarez, Hernan. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Sede Medellin; Colombia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Kulichevsky, Luis E.. No especifíca;
dc.description.fil
Fil: Di Sciascio, Fernando Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Instituto de Automática. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Automática; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Amicarelli, Adriana Natacha. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Instituto de Automática. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Automática; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Crop Protection
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0261219423002065
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2023.106383
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