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dc.contributor.author
Whitworth Hulse, Juan Ignacio
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Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel
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Borras, Lucas
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Alsina Torres, Simón Ezequiel
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Houspanossian, Javier
dc.contributor.author
Nosetto, Marcelo Daniel
dc.date.available
2024-02-19T11:41:56Z
dc.date.issued
2023-06
dc.identifier.citation
Whitworth Hulse, Juan Ignacio; Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel; Borras, Lucas; Alsina Torres, Simón Ezequiel; Houspanossian, Javier; et al.; The expansion of rainfed grain production can generate spontaneous hydrological changes that reduce climate sensitivity; Elsevier Science; Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment; 349; 6-2023; 1-13
dc.identifier.issn
0167-8809
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/227365
dc.description.abstract
As global warming intensifies climatic extremes, the need to understand their effects on farming systems, particularly under rainfed conditions, grows. During the last three decades the Argentine Pampas, a major global grain exporter, hosted an unprecedented expansion of cultivation under unirrigated and undrained conditions. Simultaneously, the extreme flatness and lack of water infrastructure favored groundwater level raises where agriculture expanded. However, the effect of climate extremes and elevated water tables buffering droughts but increasing flooding risk on the sensitivity of regional grain production remains unknown. Based on agronomic, weather, water table, and remote sensing data, we analyzed the production response to dry, wet, and flooded periods over the last 35 years, and to the ongoing water table raises during the last 15 years, focusing on sown and effective harvested area (harvested/sown area) and yield. Soybean and maize production increased 5.9 and 3.3-fold, respectively, as a result of area and yield growths. On average, droughts decreased production (−25 % for soybean and −14 % for maize) and wet periods increased it (+14 % for soybean and +17 % for maize) through their effects on yields and effective harvested area. Floods reduced production (−8 % for soybean and −10 % for maize) by decreasing sown and effective harvested area, leaving yields unaffected. As water tables rose, a positive yield effect during drought was detected, with counties with shallow water tables (< 3 m depth) halving yield cuts during dry years. Lacking water infrastructure, this South American grain belt is currently matching the annual production variability levels observed under intense irrigation and drainage in North America. The unexpected water table level raises of the Pampas had an overall positive effect on grain production, with flood disruptions being more than compensated by drought buffering. This balance may change in the future, calling for a deeper understanding of these complex relationships between climate, hydrology and agriculture.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Elsevier Science
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights
Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 2.5 Argentina (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5 AR)
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
ARGENTINE PAMPAS
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CROP YIELD
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DROUGHT
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FLOODING
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LAND USE CHANGE
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WATER TABLE
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Otras Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
The expansion of rainfed grain production can generate spontaneous hydrological changes that reduce climate sensitivity
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2024-02-19T10:30:19Z
dc.journal.volume
349
dc.journal.pagination
1-13
dc.journal.pais
Países Bajos
dc.journal.ciudad
Amsterdam
dc.description.fil
Fil: Whitworth Hulse, Juan Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Borras, Lucas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Alsina Torres, Simón Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Houspanossian, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico- Matemáticas y Naturales; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Nosetto, Marcelo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167880923000993
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2023.108440
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