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dc.contributor.author
Whitworth Hulse, Juan Ignacio  
dc.contributor.author
Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel  
dc.contributor.author
Borras, Lucas  
dc.contributor.author
Alsina Torres, Simón Ezequiel  
dc.contributor.author
Houspanossian, Javier  
dc.contributor.author
Nosetto, Marcelo Daniel  
dc.date.available
2024-02-19T11:41:56Z  
dc.date.issued
2023-06  
dc.identifier.citation
Whitworth Hulse, Juan Ignacio; Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel; Borras, Lucas; Alsina Torres, Simón Ezequiel; Houspanossian, Javier; et al.; The expansion of rainfed grain production can generate spontaneous hydrological changes that reduce climate sensitivity; Elsevier Science; Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment; 349; 6-2023; 1-13  
dc.identifier.issn
0167-8809  
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/227365  
dc.description.abstract
As global warming intensifies climatic extremes, the need to understand their effects on farming systems, particularly under rainfed conditions, grows. During the last three decades the Argentine Pampas, a major global grain exporter, hosted an unprecedented expansion of cultivation under unirrigated and undrained conditions. Simultaneously, the extreme flatness and lack of water infrastructure favored groundwater level raises where agriculture expanded. However, the effect of climate extremes and elevated water tables buffering droughts but increasing flooding risk on the sensitivity of regional grain production remains unknown. Based on agronomic, weather, water table, and remote sensing data, we analyzed the production response to dry, wet, and flooded periods over the last 35 years, and to the ongoing water table raises during the last 15 years, focusing on sown and effective harvested area (harvested/sown area) and yield. Soybean and maize production increased 5.9 and 3.3-fold, respectively, as a result of area and yield growths. On average, droughts decreased production (−25 % for soybean and −14 % for maize) and wet periods increased it (+14 % for soybean and +17 % for maize) through their effects on yields and effective harvested area. Floods reduced production (−8 % for soybean and −10 % for maize) by decreasing sown and effective harvested area, leaving yields unaffected. As water tables rose, a positive yield effect during drought was detected, with counties with shallow water tables (< 3 m depth) halving yield cuts during dry years. Lacking water infrastructure, this South American grain belt is currently matching the annual production variability levels observed under intense irrigation and drainage in North America. The unexpected water table level raises of the Pampas had an overall positive effect on grain production, with flood disruptions being more than compensated by drought buffering. This balance may change in the future, calling for a deeper understanding of these complex relationships between climate, hydrology and agriculture.  
dc.format
application/pdf  
dc.language.iso
eng  
dc.publisher
Elsevier Science  
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess  
dc.rights
Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 2.5 Argentina (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5 AR)  
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/  
dc.subject
ARGENTINE PAMPAS  
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CROP YIELD  
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DROUGHT  
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FLOODING  
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LAND USE CHANGE  
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WATER TABLE  
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Otras Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente  
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Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente  
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CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS  
dc.title
The expansion of rainfed grain production can generate spontaneous hydrological changes that reduce climate sensitivity  
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article  
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo  
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion  
dc.date.updated
2024-02-19T10:30:19Z  
dc.journal.volume
349  
dc.journal.pagination
1-13  
dc.journal.pais
Países Bajos  
dc.journal.ciudad
Amsterdam  
dc.description.fil
Fil: Whitworth Hulse, Juan Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina  
dc.description.fil
Fil: Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina  
dc.description.fil
Fil: Borras, Lucas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario; Argentina  
dc.description.fil
Fil: Alsina Torres, Simón Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina  
dc.description.fil
Fil: Houspanossian, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico- Matemáticas y Naturales; Argentina  
dc.description.fil
Fil: Nosetto, Marcelo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina  
dc.journal.title
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment  
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167880923000993  
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2023.108440