Probabilistic model for Padel games dynamics

Abstract

This study applies complexity sciences to analyze the game of Padel. Data from 18 professional matches were collected, and the probability distributions of the total number of shots and the probability distribution of rallies’ duration were analyzed. Based on these empirical observations and previous reports, a probabilistic model with two parameters was proposed to describe the game dynamics. One of them controls the probability of making a shot and the other probability of doing it offensively. The model also considers the offensive advantage of the team serving the ball. Using this model, an analytical expression for the probability distribution of the total number of shots was obtained and fit to the data. The results reveal that the complex dynamics of Padel can be effectively approximated as a stochastic process governed by simple probabilistic rules.