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dc.contributor.author
Wanelik, Klara M.
dc.contributor.author
Begon, Mike
dc.contributor.author
Fenton, Andy
dc.contributor.author
Norman, Rachel A.
dc.contributor.author
Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
dc.date.available
2024-02-06T13:35:02Z
dc.date.issued
2023-05
dc.identifier.citation
Wanelik, Klara M.; Begon, Mike; Fenton, Andy; Norman, Rachel A.; Beldomenico, Pablo Martín; Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission; Elsevier; iScience; 26; 5; 5-2023; 1-13
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/225940
dc.description.abstract
Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model (for a hypothetical acute viral infection) and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Elsevier
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
HEALTH SCIENCES
dc.subject
MEDICINE
dc.subject
VIROLOGY
dc.subject.classification
Otras Ciencias Veterinarias
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Ciencias Veterinarias
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CIENCIAS AGRÍCOLAS
dc.title
Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2024-02-05T13:59:05Z
dc.identifier.eissn
2589-0042
dc.journal.volume
26
dc.journal.number
5
dc.journal.pagination
1-13
dc.journal.pais
Países Bajos
dc.journal.ciudad
Amsterdam
dc.description.fil
Fil: Wanelik, Klara M.. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
dc.description.fil
Fil: Begon, Mike. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
dc.description.fil
Fil: Fenton, Andy. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
dc.description.fil
Fil: Norman, Rachel A.. University of Stirling; Reino Unido
dc.description.fil
Fil: Beldomenico, Pablo Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - CONICET - Santa Fe. Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral; Argentina. Laboratorio de Ecología de Enfermedades; Argentina
dc.journal.title
iScience
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223006958
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106618
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