From North/Central America to the World? Assessing the potential of Pycnoderes quadrimaculatus Guerin-Meneville (Heteroptera: Miridae) as a pest through Ecological Niche Models

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Pycnoderes quadrimaculatus is a pest that feeds on several plants, many of which are economically important. It is native to North/Central America and its distribution has expanded to several countries in South America. RESULTS: Ecological niche models show that P. quadrimaculatus has invaded regions with climates different from those of its native range, and that there are suitable climatic conditions for its establishment worldwide. Regions where P. quadrimaculatus is a major threat and possible natural pathways of ingression were identified. In the future, its distribution will be modified by climate change. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides useful information for risk assessment and pest management of P. quadrimaculatus. According to our results, the species has great potential as a pest because it can adapt to different climatic conditions and feeds on a wide range of economically important plants. Over time, its distribution has expanded, and our models suggest that it will continue to invade other regions unless preventive measures are taken.