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dc.contributor.author
Manrubia, S.
dc.contributor.author
Zanette, Damian Horacio
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dc.date.available
2023-11-06T12:12:48Z
dc.date.issued
2022-04
dc.identifier.citation
Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio; Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1); Royal Society of Chemistry; Royal Society Open Science; 9; 4; 4-2022; 1-13
dc.identifier.issn
2054-5703
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217051
dc.description.abstract
Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Royal Society of Chemistry
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
dc.subject
INFECTION WAVES
dc.subject
POPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subject
RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY
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SIR EPIDEMICS
dc.subject
UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES
dc.subject.classification
Otras Ciencias Físicas
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias Físicas
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2023-10-27T16:17:03Z
dc.journal.volume
9
dc.journal.number
4
dc.journal.pagination
1-13
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
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dc.description.fil
Fil: Manrubia, S.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Zanette, Damian Horacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Royal Society Open Science
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211667
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