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dc.contributor.author
Lawrence, Zachary D.
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Abalos, Marta
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Ayarzagüena, Blanca
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Barriopedro, David
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Butler, Amy H.
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Calvo, Natalia
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de la Cámara, Alvaro
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Charlton-Perez, Andrew
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Domeisen, Daniela I.V.
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Dunn Sigouin, Etienne
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García Serrano, Javier
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Garfinkel, Chaim I.
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Hindley, Neil P.
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Jia, Liwei
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Jucker, Martin
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Karpechko, Alexey Y.
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Kim, Hera
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Lang, Andrea L.
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Lee, Simon H.
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Lin, Pu
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Osman, Marisol
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Palmeiro, Froila M.
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Perlwitz, Judith
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Polichtchouk, Inna
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Richter, Jadwiga H.
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Schwartz, Chen
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Son, Seok Woo
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Statnaia, Irina
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Taguchi, Masakazu
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Tyrrell, Nicholas L.
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Wright, Corwin J.
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Wu, Rachel W.-Y.
dc.date.available
2023-10-20T12:45:11Z
dc.date.issued
2022-08
dc.identifier.citation
Lawrence, Zachary D.; Abalos, Marta; Ayarzagüena, Blanca; Barriopedro, David; Butler, Amy H.; et al.; Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems; Copernicus Publications; Weather and Climate Dynamics; 3; 3; 8-2022; 977-1001
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/215519
dc.description.abstract
The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global-mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system’s climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme-vortex-event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability in the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast systems and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere in predictive skill in the troposphere.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Copernicus Publications
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Sudden Stratospheric Warming
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Eddy-driven Jet
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Investigación Climatológica
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Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2023-07-07T22:23:15Z
dc.identifier.eissn
2698-4016
dc.journal.volume
3
dc.journal.number
3
dc.journal.pagination
977-1001
dc.journal.pais
Alemania
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dc.description.fil
Fil: Lawrence, Zachary D.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Abalos, Marta. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; España
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Fil: Ayarzagüena, Blanca. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; España
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Fil: Barriopedro, David. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; España
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Fil: Butler, Amy H.. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Calvo, Natalia. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; España
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Fil: de la Cámara, Alvaro. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; España
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Fil: Charlton-Perez, Andrew. University of Reading; Reino Unido
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Fil: Domeisen, Daniela I.V.. Universite de Lausanne; Suiza. Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule zurich (eth Zurich);
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Fil: Dunn Sigouin, Etienne. Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research; Noruega
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Fil: García Serrano, Javier. Universidad de Barcelona; España
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Fil: Garfinkel, Chaim I.. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Israel
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Fil: Hindley, Neil P.. University of Bath; Reino Unido
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Fil: Jia, Liwei. University Corporation For Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Jucker, Martin. Arc Centre Of Excellence For Climate Extremes; Australia. University of New South Wales; Australia
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Fil: Karpechko, Alexey Y.. Finnish Meteorological Institute; Islandia
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Fil: Kim, Hera. Seoul National University; Corea del Sur
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Fil: Lang, Andrea L.. State University of New York; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Lee, Simon H.. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Lin, Pu. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Alemania
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Fil: Palmeiro, Froila M.. Universidad de Barcelona; España
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Fil: Perlwitz, Judith. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Polichtchouk, Inna. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
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Fil: Richter, Jadwiga H.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Schwartz, Chen. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Israel
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Fil: Son, Seok Woo. Seoul National University; Corea del Sur
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Fil: Statnaia, Irina. Finnish Meteorological Institute; Finlandia
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Fil: Taguchi, Masakazu. Aichi University Of Education; Japón
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Fil: Tyrrell, Nicholas L.. Finnish Meteorological Institute; Finlandia
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Fil: Wright, Corwin J.. University of Bath; Reino Unido
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Fil: Wu, Rachel W.-Y.. Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule zurich (eth Zurich);
dc.journal.title
Weather and Climate Dynamics
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/977/2022/
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