Artículo
Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina
Gomez, Andrea Alejandra
; Lopez, Maria Soledad
; Muller, Gabriela Viviana
; López, Leonardo Rafael
; Sione, Walter Fabian; Giovanini, Leonardo Luis
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Fecha de publicación:
06/2022
Editorial:
Elsevier
Revista:
Heliyon
ISSN:
2405-8440
Idioma:
Inglés
Tipo de recurso:
Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Resumen
The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three most populated cities in the area (Santa Fe, Paraná and Rosario), during the 2009–2018 period. Results obtained by solving the proposed SIR model for the 2010 outbreak are in good agreement with the actual data, capturing the dynamics of the leptospirosis outbreak wave. However, the model does not perform very well in the last months of the year when isolated cases appear outside the outbreak periods, probably due to non- climatic factors not explicitly considered in the present version of the model. Nevertheless, the dynamic modeling of infectious diseases considering hydroclimatic variables constitutes a climatic service for the public health system, not yet available in Argentina.
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Articulos(CCT - SANTA FE)
Articulos de CTRO.CIENTIFICO TECNOL.CONICET - SANTA FE
Articulos de CTRO.CIENTIFICO TECNOL.CONICET - SANTA FE
Citación
Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Lopez, Maria Soledad; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; López, Leonardo Rafael; Sione, Walter Fabian; et al.; Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina; Elsevier; Heliyon; 8; 6; 6-2022; 1-10
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