The multicausal twilight of South American native mammalian predators (Metatheria, Sparassodonta)

Abstract

Sparassodonts were the apex mammalian predators of South America throughout most of the Cenozoic, diversifying into a wide array of niches including fox-like and even saber-toothed forms. Their extinction is still controversial, with different authors suggesting competition with other predators (placental carnivorans, terror birds, and carnivorous opossums), extinction of prey, and climate change as causal explanations. Here, we analyse these hypotheses using a novel approach implicating Bayesian analyses. We find that speciation and extinction rates of sparassodonts can be correlated with (i) intrinsic biotic factors such as changes in body mass and diversity of sparassodonts, (ii) extrinsic biotic factors such as potential prey diversity, and iii) extrinsic abiotic factors like the atmospheric CO2, sea level, temperature, and uplift of the Andes. Thus, sparassodonts are a good example of a multilevel mixed model of evolution, where various factors drove the evolutionary history of this clade in a pluralistic way. There is no evidence for competition between Sparassodonta and others predators, and the effect of competition in the face of extinctions of fossil species should be tested and not assumed. Furthermore, we propose a novel approach for evaluating the fossil record when performing macroevolutionary analyses.