Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes

Abstract

Evaluation of volcanic hazards typically focusses on single eruptive centres or spatially restricted areas, such as volcanic fields. Expanding hazard assessments across wide regions (e.g., large sections of a continental margin) has rarely been attempted, due to the complexity of integrating temporal and spatial variability in tectonic and magmatic processes. In this study, we investigate new approaches to quantify the hazards of such long-term active and complex settings, using the example of the 22.5–28°S segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes. This research is based on the estimation of: 1) spatial probability of future volcanic activity (based on kernel density estimation using a new volcanic geospatial database), 2) temporal probability of future volcanic events, and 3) areas susceptible to volcanic flow and fall processes (based on computer modeling). Integrating these results, we produce a set of volcanic hazard maps. We then calculate the relative probabilities of population centres in the area being affected by any volcanic phenomenon. Touristic towns such as La Poma (Argentina), Toconao (Chile), Antofagasta de la Sierra (Argentina), Socaire (Chile), and Talabre (Chile) are exposed to the highest relative volcanic hazard. In addition, through this work we delineate five regions of high spatial probability (i.e., volcanic clusters), three of which correlate well with geophysical evidence of mid-crustal partial melt bodies. Many of the eruptive centres within these volcanic clusters have poorly known eruption histories and are recommended to be targeted for future work. We hope this contribution will be a useful approach to encourage probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments for other arc segments.