Increases in Picocyanobacteria Abundance in Agriculturally Eutrophic Pampean Lakes Inferred from Historical Records of Secchi Depth and Chlorophyll-a

Abstract

Phytoplankton size structure has profound consequences on food-web organization and energy transfer. Presently, picocyanobacteria (size < 2µm) represent a major fraction of the autotrophic plankton of Pampean lakes. Glyphosate is known to stimulate the development of picocyanobacteria capable of degrading the herbicide. Due to the worldwide adoption of glyphosate-resistant crops, herbicide usage has increased sharply since the mid-1990s. Unfortunately, there are very few studies (none for the Pampa region) reporting picocyanobacteria abundance before 2000. The proliferation of µm sized particles should decrease Secchi disc depth (ZSD). Therefore ZSD, conditional to chlorophyll-a, may serve as an indicator of picocyanobacteria abundance. We use generalized additive models (GAMs) to analyze a "validation" dataset consisting of 82 records of ZSD, chlorophyll-a, and picocyanobacteria abundance from two Pampean lakes surveys (2009 and 2015). In support of the hypothesis, ZSD was negatively related to picocyanobacteria after accounting for the effect of chlorophyll-a. We then fitted a "historical" dataset using hierarchical GAMs to compare ZSD conditional to chlorophyll-a, before and after 2000. We estimated that ZSD levels during 2000-2021 were, on average, only about half as deep as those during 1980-1999. We conclude that the adoption of glyphosate-resistant crops has stimulated outbreaks of picocyanobacteria populations, resulting in lower water transparency.