Artículo
A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
Fecha de publicación:
05/2020
Editorial:
University of Minnesota
Revista:
International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics
ISSN:
2147-8988
e-ISSN:
2149-3766
Idioma:
Inglés
Tipo de recurso:
Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Resumen
The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algorithms were used. Climate change estimates of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, by the 2050s and 2070s, were considered. Results of assessed models differed significantly in the estimation of areas with greater climatic risk for the establishment of HLB in South America. According to the estimates of the fifth IPCC report, the effects of climate change would determine that in future, high-risk areas for HLB establishment would be displaced towards the southwest of the areas considered riskier nowadays. Even individual models do not present a clear pattern for HLB establishment and distribution, the integration of the results generated by different algorithms in a consensus model, can provide additional information for phytosanitary decision making
Palabras clave:
CLIMATE CHANGE
,
HLB
,
INVASIVE SPECIES
,
PHYTOSANITARY RISK
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Identificadores
Colecciones
Articulos(CICYTTP)
Articulos de CENTRO DE INV.CIENT.Y TRANSFERENCIA TEC A LA PROD
Articulos de CENTRO DE INV.CIENT.Y TRANSFERENCIA TEC A LA PROD
Citación
Heit, Guillermo Eugenio; Sione, Walter Fabian; Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto; A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study; University of Minnesota; International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics; 08; 5-2020; 179-192
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