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dc.contributor.author
Flombaum, Pedro
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dc.contributor.author
Martiny, Adam C.
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dc.date.available
2022-12-15T18:30:15Z
dc.date.issued
2021-12
dc.identifier.citation
Flombaum, Pedro; Martiny, Adam C.; Diverse but uncertain responses of picophytoplankton lineages to future climate change; John Wiley and Sons Inc; Limnology and Oceanography; 66; 12; 12-2021; 4171-4181
dc.identifier.issn
0024-3590
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/181414
dc.description.abstract
Climate change is projected to modify the physical and chemical environment of the ocean, but the quantitative impact on the distribution of phytoplankton groups is unclear. Most Earth System Models (ESMs) predict future declines of phytoplankton in low latitude waters, contradicting observations showing that picophytoplankton can reach high abundance in warm waters. Here, we used a historic and three climate scenarios along with quantitative niche models to project Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and picoeukaryotic phytoplankton distributions for the year 2100. First, we found global responses with up to 50% and 9% increase for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus abundances, respectively, and 8% decrease for picoeukaryotic phytoplankton. All groups increased in abundance at low latitude, and Synechococcus and picoeukaryotic phytoplankton showed bands of decreases and increases in mid- and high-latitudes, respectively. Prochlorococcus temporal trends were consistent among ESMs and increased with the strength of the scenario, while Synechococcus and picoeukaryotic phytoplankton showed mixed results. Second, we evaluated sources of uncertainty associated to future projections. The anthropogenic uncertainty, associated to climate scenarios, increased with time and was relevant for Prochlorococcus. The environmental and biological uncertainty, associated to ESMs and niche models, respectively, represented the largest fraction but differed among lineages. Quantifying uncertainties is key because the predicted differences in the future distribution and abundance can have large-scale consequences on ocean ecosystem functioning.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
John Wiley and Sons Inc
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Cianobacterias
dc.subject
CMIP5
dc.subject
Incertidumbre
dc.subject.classification
Ecología
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias Biológicas
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Diverse but uncertain responses of picophytoplankton lineages to future climate change
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2022-09-20T18:37:26Z
dc.journal.volume
66
dc.journal.number
12
dc.journal.pagination
4171-4181
dc.journal.pais
Estados Unidos
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dc.description.fil
Fil: Flombaum, Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Martiny, Adam C.. University of California at Irvine; Estados Unidos
dc.journal.title
Limnology and Oceanography
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11951
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lno.11951
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