Repositorio Institucional
Repositorio Institucional
CONICET Digital
  • Inicio
  • EXPLORAR
    • AUTORES
    • DISCIPLINAS
    • COMUNIDADES
  • Estadísticas
  • Novedades
    • Noticias
    • Boletines
  • Ayuda
    • General
    • Datos de investigación
  • Acerca de
    • CONICET Digital
    • Equipo
    • Red Federal
  • Contacto
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
  • INFORMACIÓN GENERAL
  • RESUMEN
  • ESTADISTICAS
 
Artículo

A statistical forecast scheme of precipitation in the Upper Bermejo River Basin in Argentina

Ayala, Sabrina NoemíIcon ; González, Marcela HebeIcon ; Rolla, Alfredo LuisIcon
Fecha de publicación: 05/2021
Editorial: Taylor & Francis Ltd
Revista: International Journal of River Basin Management
ISSN: 1571-5124
e-ISSN: 1814-2060
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de recurso: Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas

Resumen

The Bermejo River, located in northern Argentina, has a flow regime controlled by precipitation. In an area characterized by its risk of flooding and land-sliding during the summer, seasonal precipitation forecast becomes a valuable tool for risk assessment and better management of hydric resources. This study focuses on identifying remote forcings of precipitation variability for the upper sub-basin of the Bermejo River Basin, and developing multiple linear regression models of areal spring precipitation (September to November), the beginning of the rainy season, considering predictors monitored on the preceding August. Positive rainfall anomalies in spring relate to higher monthly and maximum daily streamflow in the upper and lower sub-basins. Two forecast models arose as the ones with best performance when using leave-one-out-cross-validation. Predictors involved in these models (four and three predictors, respectively) emphasize the influence of the circulation in middle-low levels over the Pacific Ocean, as well as of the sea surface temperature in the El Niño region and the low-level meridional wind in tropical South America. The two models share similar performance metrics, although the model with less predictors has a better skill for the detection of normal and above-normal rainfall seasons.
Palabras clave: CIRCULATION PATTERNS , RISK , SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE , STREAMFLOW
Ver el registro completo
 
Archivos asociados
Tamaño: 2.084Mb
Formato: PDF
.
Solicitar
Licencia
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)
Identificadores
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/181410
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2021.1932952
URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2021.1932952
Colecciones
Articulos(CIMA)
Articulos de CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIONES DEL MAR Y LA ATMOSFERA
Citación
Ayala, Sabrina Noemí; González, Marcela Hebe; Rolla, Alfredo Luis; A statistical forecast scheme of precipitation in the Upper Bermejo River Basin in Argentina; Taylor & Francis Ltd; International Journal of River Basin Management; 2021; 5-2021; 1-14
Compartir
Altmétricas
 

Enviar por e-mail
Separar cada destinatario (hasta 5) con punto y coma.
  • Facebook
  • X Conicet Digital
  • Instagram
  • YouTube
  • Sound Cloud
  • LinkedIn

Los contenidos del CONICET están licenciados bajo Creative Commons Reconocimiento 2.5 Argentina License

https://www.conicet.gov.ar/ - CONICET

Inicio

Explorar

  • Autores
  • Disciplinas
  • Comunidades

Estadísticas

Novedades

  • Noticias
  • Boletines

Ayuda

Acerca de

  • CONICET Digital
  • Equipo
  • Red Federal

Contacto

Godoy Cruz 2290 (C1425FQB) CABA – República Argentina – Tel: +5411 4899-5400 repositorio@conicet.gov.ar
TÉRMINOS Y CONDICIONES