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dc.contributor.author
Alessandri, Andrea
dc.contributor.author
Borrelli, Andrea
dc.contributor.author
Masina, Simona
dc.contributor.author
Cherchi, Annalisa
dc.contributor.author
Gualdi, Silvio
dc.contributor.author
Navarra, Antonio
dc.contributor.author
Di Pietro, Pierluigi
dc.contributor.author
Carril, Andrea Fabiana
dc.date.available
2017-06-08T21:18:22Z
dc.date.issued
2010-07
dc.identifier.citation
Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; et al.; The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions; American Meteorological Society; Monthly Energy Review; 138; 7; 7-2010; 2930-2952
dc.identifier.issn
0027-0644
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17840
dc.description.abstract
The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
American Meteorological Society
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Seasonal Prediction
dc.subject
Initial Conditions
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
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Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2017-05-31T19:44:04Z
dc.journal.volume
138
dc.journal.number
7
dc.journal.pagination
2930-2952
dc.journal.pais
Estados Unidos
dc.journal.ciudad
Boston
dc.description.fil
Fil: Alessandri, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Borrelli, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Masina, Simona. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Gualdi, Silvio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Navarra, Antonio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Di Pietro, Pierluigi. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Monthly Energy Review
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1
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