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Artículo

Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble

Menendez, Claudio GuillermoIcon ; Carril, Andrea FabianaIcon
Fecha de publicación: 02/2010
Editorial: Springer
Revista: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
e-ISSN: 1573-1480
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de recurso: Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Otras Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente

Resumen

We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50◦ S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50◦ S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM.
Palabras clave: Extremes , Sam , Climatic Change
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info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)
Identificadores
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17242
URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9735-7
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9735-7
Colecciones
Articulos(CIMA)
Articulos de CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIONES DEL MAR Y LA ATMOSFERA
Citación
Menendez, Claudio Guillermo; Carril, Andrea Fabiana; Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble; Springer; Climatic Change; 98; 3-4; 2-2010; 359-377
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