Show simple item record Solman, Silvina Alicia Pessacg, Natalia Liz 2017-05-31T20:05:40Z 2012-07
dc.identifier.citation Solman, Silvina Alicia; Pessacg, Natalia Liz; Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 39; 1; 7-2012; 59-76
dc.identifier.issn 0930-7575
dc.description.abstract This work focuses on the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty affecting regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale, using the MM5 model. The simulations cover a 3-month period for the austral spring season. Several four-member ensembles were performed in order to quantify the uncertainty due to: the internal variability; the definition of the regional model domain; the choice of physical parameterizations and the selection of physical parameters within a particular cumulus scheme. The uncertainty was measured by means of the spread among individual members of each ensemble during the integration period. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in the initial conditions, represents the lowest level of uncertainty for every variable analyzed. The geographic distribution of the spread among ensemble members depends on the variable: for precipitation and temperature the largest spread is found over tropical South America while for the mean sea level pressure the largest spread is located over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, where large synoptic-scale activity occurs. Using nudging techniques to ingest the boundary conditions reduces dramatically the internal variability. The uncertainty due to the domain choice displays a similar spatial pattern compared with the internal variability, except for the mean sea level pressure field, though its magnitude is larger all over the model domain for every variable. The largest spread among ensemble members is found for the ensemble in which different combinations of physical parameterizations are selected. The perturbed physics ensemble produces a level of uncertainty slightly larger than the internal variability. This study suggests that no matter what the source of uncertainty is, the geographical distribution of the spread among members of the ensembles is invariant, particularly for precipitation and temperature.
dc.format application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Springer
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.subject SOUTH AMERICA
dc.subject UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject.classification Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
dc.subject.classification Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2017-05-31T19:43:19Z
dc.identifier.eissn 1432-0894
dc.journal.volume 39
dc.journal.number 1
dc.journal.pagination 59-76
dc.journal.pais Alemania
dc.journal.ciudad Berlin
dc.description.fil Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
dc.description.fil Fil: Pessacg, Natalia Liz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentina
dc.journal.title Climate Dynamics
dc.relation.alternativeid info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/
dc.relation.alternativeid info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/

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info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)