Potential species distribution models can help in the conservation of threatened species: The case of the Guigna (Leopardus guigna) in Los Alerces National Park, Argentina

Abstract

The Guigna (Leopardus guigna) is a felid with one of the smallest geographical distributions. In Argentina, this species occurs in four national parks: Los Alerces National Park (LANP), Lago Puelo National Park, Nahuel Huapi National Park and Lanín National Park. However, because estimations suggest that, by 2050, human land use and climate change will negatively affect 40 per cent of its potential distribution, LANP is very important to the conservation of the species. With the aim to help the Argentine Administration of National Parks to define strategies to protect the Guigna, the present study aimed to: (1) map sightings reported in LANP over the last 45 years and determine the areas with confirmed presence and probable absence of Guignas, taking into account the possibility of observation in different areas of the park; (2) map the park´s suitable habitats; and (3) map potentially optimal areas for the Guigna´s conservation. The results identified four valleys as potentially optimal areas for the conservation of Guignas within LANP and another two as secondary suitable areas. The results also indicated that to maintain a healthy population of Guignas within LANP, the understorey structure of forest strips that connect the valleys should also be conserved, and that the main threat to this structure is the expansion of Wild Boars.