Effectiveness of rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, and BBIBP-CorV vaccines for risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 and death due to COVID-19 in people older than 60 years in Argentina: a test-negative, case-control, and retrospective longitudinal study

Abstract

Background: In January, 2021, a vaccination campaign against COVID-19 was initiated with the rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, and BBIBP-CorV vaccines in Argentina. The objective of this study was to estimate vaccine effectiveness at reducing risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 deaths in people older than 60 years. Methods: In this test-negative, case-control, and retrospective longitudinal study done in Argentina, we evaluated the effectiveness of three vaccines (rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, and BBIBP-CorV) on SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk of death in people with RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19, using data from the National Surveillance System (SNVS 2.0). All individuals aged 60 years or older reported to SNVS 2.0 as being suspected to have COVID-19 who had disease status confirmed with RT-PCR were included in the study. Unvaccinated individuals could participate in any of the analyses. People with suspected COVID-19 who developed symptoms before the start of the implementation of the vaccination programme for their age group or district were excluded from the study. The odds ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection was evaluated by logistic regression and the risk of death in individuals with RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 was evaluated by proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for possible confounders: age at the time of the symptom onset date, sex, district of residence, epidemiological week corresponding to the symptom onset date, and history of COVID-19. The estimation of vaccine effectiveness to prevent death due to COVID-19 was done indirectly by combining infection and death estimates. In addition, we evaluated the effect of the first dose of viral vector vaccines across time. Findings: From Jan 31, to Sept 14, 2021, 1 282 928 individuals were included, of whom 687 167 (53·6%) were in the rAd26-rAd5 analysis, 358 431 (27·6%) in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 analysis, and 237 330 (18·5%) in the BBIBP-CorV analysis. Vaccine effectiveness after two doses was high for all three vaccines, adjusted odds ratio 0·36 (95% CI 0·35–0·37) for rAd26-rAd5, 0·32 (0·31–0·33) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, and 0·56 (0·55–0·58) for BBIBP-CorV. After two doses, the effect on deaths was higher than that on risk of infection: adjusted hazard ratio 0·19 (95% CI 0·18–0·21) for rAd26-rAd5, 0·20 (0·18–0·22) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, and 0·27 (0·25–0·29) for BBIBP-CorV. The indirectly estimated effectiveness on deaths was 93·1% (95% CI 92·6–93·5) for rAd26-rAd5, 93·7% (93·2–94·3) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, and 85·0% (84·0–86·0) for BBIBP-CorV following two doses. First dose effect of viral vector vaccines remained stable over time. Interpretation: The vaccines used in Argentina showed effectiveness in reducing infection and death by SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. Funding: None.