Tetrapod turnover during the Permo-Triassic transition explained by temperature change

Abstract

Global temperatures significantly changed from the late Permian to the Early Triassic: the Earth transformed from a cool world to a hothouse climate. This transition undoubtedly had a strong impact on tetrapod physiology and distribution. During the global cooling, tetrapods generally increased their size; and the currently recognized late Permian tetrapod extinction, exemplified by the record preserved in the South African Karoo Basin, occurred in the late stage of cooling. Rapid warming in the Early Triassic is predicted to have resulted in extinctions and/or local extirpation of low latitude tetrapods, but the very limited fossil record from this region makes testing this hypothesis difficult. Warming is predicted to have had less negative impacts on the tetrapod diversity of mid-latitudes, and promoted the success of tetrapods in the high latitudes. Based on the known fossil record, a tetrapod gap could have existed in central Pangea between ~30°N and ~ 40°S, and lasting from the Induan to the early Spathian. However, the exact boundaries of this gap likely varied over time, and it could have encompassed a larger area during the hottest phases (Griesbachian and near the Smithian–Spathain boundary).