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Artículo

Attribution and projections of temperature extreme trends in South America based on CMIP5 models

Rusticucci, Matilde MonicaIcon ; Zazulie, NataliaIcon
Fecha de publicación: 03/2021
Editorial: Blackwell Publishing
Revista: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
ISSN: 0077-8923
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de recurso: Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Investigación Climatológica

Resumen

Temperature extreme indices were analyzed for five continental regions of southern South America defined according to their climatic characteristics. Gridded observations, reanalysis, and global-coupled climate models from CMIP5 were used with the approach of temperature extreme trend attribution analysis on fixed-threshold and percentile-based temperature extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The largest positive trends are exhibited in the tropical nights index, and a clear anthropogenic signal is evident in the subtropical region. In the subtropical central Andes, there is a decrease in the frost days index and increases in the tropical nights and summer days indices, and an anthropogenic signal is evident. In the Patagonian region, all trends from the historical runs were significant, while the ones from the natural experiment were nonsignificant, showing the marked effect of anthropogenic forcing in this region in the extreme temperature events. Projected changes in extreme indices for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, and larger changes are expected in the warm nights index.
Palabras clave: ATTRIBUTION , CLIMATE CHANGE , EXTREME TEMPERATURE , SOUTH AMERICA
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info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)
Identificadores
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/151871
URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.14591
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14591
Colecciones
Articulos(OCA CIUDAD UNIVERSITARIA)
Articulos de OFICINA DE COORDINACION ADMINISTRATIVA CIUDAD UNIVERSITARIA
Citación
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Zazulie, Natalia; Attribution and projections of temperature extreme trends in South America based on CMIP5 models; Blackwell Publishing; Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences; 1504; 1; 3-2021; 154-166
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