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dc.contributor.author
Collazo, Soledad Maribel
dc.contributor.author
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
dc.contributor.author
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
dc.date.available
2022-01-04T13:29:39Z
dc.date.issued
2019-07
dc.identifier.citation
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Summer seasonal predictability of warm days in Argentina: statistical model approach; Springer Wien; Theory & Application Climatology; 138; 3; 7-2019; 1853-1876
dc.identifier.issn
0177-798X
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149553
dc.description.abstract
Predicting extreme temperature events can be very useful for different sectorsthat are strongly affected by their variability. The goal of this study is toanalyze the influence of the main atmospheric, oceanic, and soil moistureforcing on the occurrence of summer warm days and to predict extremetemperatures in Argentina northern of 40°S by fitting a statistical model. In apreliminary analysis, we studied trends and periodicities. Significant positivetrends, fundamentally in western Argentina, and two main periodicities ofsummer warm days were detected: 2?4 years and approximately 8 years.Lagged correlations allowed us to identify the key predictors: ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), andStandardized Precipitation Indices (SPI). We also noticed that the frequency ofwarm days in spring acts as a good predictor of summer warm days. Due to thecollinearity among many predictors, principal component regression was usedto simulate summer warm days. We obtained negative biases (i.e., the modeltends to underestimate the frequency of summer warm days), but the observedand simulated values of summer warm days were significantly correlated,except in northwest Argentina. Finally, we analyzed the predictability of thesummer warm days under ENSO neutral conditions, and we found newpredictors: the geopotential height gradient in 850 hPa (between the AtlanticAnticyclone and the Chaco Low) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), while the PDO and SPI lost some relevance.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Springer Wien
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
WARM DAYS
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EXTREME TEMPERATURE
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CLIMATE PREDICTION
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PRINCIPAL COMPONENT REGRESSION
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Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
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Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
Summer seasonal predictability of warm days in Argentina: statistical model approach
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2020-12-16T18:34:22Z
dc.journal.volume
138
dc.journal.number
3
dc.journal.pagination
1853-1876
dc.journal.pais
Austria
dc.journal.ciudad
Viena
dc.description.fil
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Theory & Application Climatology
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02933-6
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-019-02933-6
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